Tuesday, June 12, 2007

The Oscar Pereiro pick


Oscar Pereiro sits on the precipice of being awarded the 2006 Tour de France and yet I find myself begrudgingly adding him as a top 10 07' Tour contender. It's not out of spite from the Floyd Landis affair and the fact that Oscar has made some comments that weren't that sporting but more to do with what I see as the biggest gift ever in professional cycling.

Before I break down Oscars previous tour results I will state that we saw two Oscars in the 2006 Tour. The first Oscar found himself in 46th place at 28:50 behind the Yellow-clad Floyd Landis after 12 stages and one brutal day in the Pyrenees. The 2nd Oscar held onto the yellow jersey (after being allowed to gain 29:57 on stage 13) and did a valiant job of staying with the leaders of the tour until that fateful stage 17 where no one could stay with Floyd.

Oscar has only done 3 tours: 2004, 2005 and 2006 finishing 10th, 10th and 2nd. Hey, that is pretty good and it shows the progression in ability, maturation and fitness you'd expect from an upcoming tour contender. Or does it?

The 2004 Tour Oscar finished 10th over 23 minutes behind the then six-time winner Lance Armstrong. When you look deep into the stages you will see that Oscar had some good results in the flat stages as well as a few very good results in the mountains including a 6th place on stage 12 and a 14th on the ITT up Alpe d'Huez. But oddly Oscar couldn't take this result and build on it for 2005. He drifted to 30th after the Alpes and was allowed to drift off the front with a big group, eventually getting 2nd place to George Hincapie but gaining over 5 minutes. In the next few days Oscar would win a stage while being allowed once again a big leash in gaining 3 minutes and then another day of gaining 4 minutes. By the end of the 2005 tour Oscar secured another 10th place at 16 minutes behind Lance Armstrong. If he was a true contender he wouldn't have been allowed 12 minutes leeway from the Tour Patron, Lance Armstong.

The 2006 Tour was heading the same direction as his previous tours until the in fighting and decision by Oscars former team (Phonak) to let him take the jersey and the pressure off of Floyd.

In the end this whole experience may have created a new Oscar and another Claudio Chiappucci type rider, or maybe we are just seeing the biggest gift in cycling since Maurizio Fondriest lucked into the 1988 World Championship title? This I am sure of, Oscars days of gaining big minutes in the Tour while others watch is over.


Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Cycling Update

Floyd Landis Arbitration Trial
Sorry I didn't post anything concerning Floyd's arbitration trial. It was quite interesting, enlightening and depressing all at the same time. The best coverage of the trial can be found at the Trust but Verify blog.

Giro
The Giro brought out more TV viewers in Italy than what they have had in quite a few years. I found the Giro enjoying, but not overly exciting. Danilo Di Luca was a worthy winner and I think I would enjoy seeing the climbs on DVD. Andy Schleck, just turning 22, was the true surprise of the tour finishing 2nd and under 2 mins behind the eventual Pink Jersey wearer Di Luca. It reminds me of a young tour 2nd place finisher in 1996 who went on to win the next year and take a ton of 2nd places during his career - Jan Ulrich. Maybe I'm jumping the gun on that one, we shall see.

Drugs
Speaking of the 1996 Tour, winner Bjarne Riis has now admitted to being doped with all sorts of stuff and especially EPO during that time and that tour specifically. The UCI is clamoring that Riis give back his title (they can't do it however as the statute of limitations has run out - 8yrs). But let's review the podium for the 1996 Tour:

  1. Bjarne Riis
  2. Jan Ulrich
  3. Richard Virenque

Jan Ulrich was part of the 1996 Deutsche Telekom team that is all but admitting to mass doping and Jan retired in disgrace with possible ties to Operation Puerto. Virenque was implicated in the 1998 Festina doping scandal and admitted later on that he doped. So who gets the title? I guess you could hand it to Frankie Andreu - oh wait, he admitted to doping in prep for the 1999 tour

Tour de France
The upcoming tour is probably more open this year than last year and here are my preliminary favorites, in no particular order

Alexandre Vinokurov
Levi Leipheimer
Andreas Kloden
Tom Danielson
Denis Menchov
Carlos Sastre
Alejandro Valverda (pending Operation Puerto investigation)
Frank Schleck (Andy's older brother)
Oscar Pereiro

I think Oscar doesn't have a legitimate chance at making the top 5 and I would think a top 10 is about the best he can do. But since he got 2nd last year (thanks to a 30 min gift) I must put him on the list.

That's all for now - TJ