Back when Tiger Woods was winning almost half the majors he was entering and before he became synonymous with jokes about getting something sweet at Denny's, a popular sports bet was to pick either Tiger or the field to win. Basically, Tiger or anyone but Tiger. The odds came out more often than not to, bet on Tiger or lose your money.
This years Flanders race has been touted as Fabian Cancellara versus Tom Boonen with a few other top picks thrown in for good measure. Looking back over years of results for "de Ronde" (Flanders) reveals that it's highly unlikely that a true champion will win, which only goes to add more spice to the Boonen or Cancellara picks. With Cancellara's strong riding at Milan San Remo (minus the win) and Boonen's win at Gent Wevelgem, the duo of Cancellara/Boonen is a great bet versus the field like in the days when Tiger was still a family man.
NO CHANCE IN HELL - THIS YEAR
Let's start with the "no chance in hell" picks to eliminate the riff-raff and clear the way for predicting a true champion this year. We can exclude numerous riders just by virtue of the teams they are on this year and their lackluster track record. While Saxo Bank's Nick Nuyens' injury prevents him from defending his title it would be a long shot to repeat with the results his team has garnered thus far this year. I would take a bet that no Saxo Bank, AG2R, FDJ, Europcar, Astana or Euskatel rider will win (some lower teams I'm not even going to list). Take away Astana and I will say no rider from these teams are likely to be in the top 10. If Saxo Bank breaks the top 10 they should consider it a moral victory, that's how pathetic I've seen them for 2012.
TOP TIER
BMC has a loaded team for the classics and on paper should be winning this year like...well, like Omega Pharma has this year. But BMC has encountered some bad "injury" luck with Gilbert's infected tooth and Thor's setbacks. BMC needs to be on the attack and riding like their contracts are based on this one result and I fully expect a show from their boys at Flanders. Garmin, Sky, and Greenedge are all on the periphery with some serious firepower coming in the form of Sep Vanmarcke (Garmin), Edvald Boasson Hagan (Sky) and Matt Goss (Greenedge) and a team of support all with several riders capable of winning as well. Along with Omega, these teams are likely to send a support rider up the road in the break early causing the other teams like Radioshack to chase for their man Fabian.
Besides Tom Boonen (Omega Pharma) and Fabian Cancellara (Radioshack) the next best bet to gamble your mortgage payment on would be the young Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and perhaps Omega's other threat and last years 3rd place finisher Sylvain Chavanel.
MY PICK
I'll be pulling for Garmin or BMC to take the win this year. But for my pick - If Fabian is half as smart as he is strong, he will have taken note from last years race and this years San Remo to realize that pulling the break to the line won't win you the race - maybe this year he will not only be the strongest, but the winner as well.
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