Tour of Flanders Predictions

Back when Tiger Woods was winning almost half the majors he was entering and before he became synonymous with jokes about getting something sweet at Denny's, a popular sports bet was to pick either Tiger or the field to win. Basically, Tiger or anyone but Tiger. The odds came out more often than not to, bet on Tiger or lose your money.

This years Flanders race has been touted as Fabian Cancellara versus Tom Boonen with a few other top picks thrown in for good measure. Looking back over years of results for "de Ronde" (Flanders) reveals that it's highly unlikely that a true champion will win, which only goes to add more spice to the Boonen or Cancellara picks. With Cancellara's strong riding at Milan San Remo (minus the win) and Boonen's win at Gent Wevelgem, the duo of Cancellara/Boonen is a great bet versus the field like in the days when Tiger was still a family man.

NO CHANCE IN HELL - THIS YEAR
Let's start with the "no chance in hell" picks to eliminate the riff-raff and clear the way for predicting a true champion this year. We can exclude numerous riders just by virtue of the teams they are on this year and their lackluster track record. While Saxo Bank's Nick Nuyens' injury prevents him from defending his title it would be a long shot to repeat with the results his team has garnered thus far this year. I would take a bet that no Saxo Bank, AG2R, FDJ, Europcar, Astana or Euskatel rider will win (some lower teams I'm not even going to list). Take away Astana and I will say no rider from these teams are likely to be in the top 10.  If Saxo Bank breaks the top 10 they should consider it a moral victory, that's how pathetic I've seen them for 2012.

TOP TIER
BMC has a loaded team for the classics and on paper should be winning this year like...well, like Omega Pharma has this year.  But BMC has encountered some bad "injury" luck with Gilbert's infected tooth and Thor's setbacks.  BMC needs to be on the attack and riding like their contracts are based on this one result and I fully expect a show from their boys at Flanders.  Garmin, Sky, and Greenedge are all on the periphery with some serious firepower coming in the form of Sep Vanmarcke (Garmin), Edvald Boasson Hagan (Sky) and Matt Goss (Greenedge) and a team of support all with several riders capable of winning as well.  Along with Omega, these teams are likely to send a support rider up the road in the break early causing the other teams like Radioshack to chase for their man Fabian.

Besides Tom Boonen (Omega Pharma) and Fabian Cancellara (Radioshack) the next best bet to gamble your mortgage payment on would be the young Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and perhaps Omega's other threat and last years 3rd place finisher Sylvain Chavanel.

MY PICK
I'll be pulling for Garmin or BMC to take the win this year.  But for my pick - If Fabian is half as smart as he is strong, he will have taken note from last years race and this years San Remo to realize that pulling the break to the line won't win you the race - maybe this year he will not only be the strongest, but the winner as well. 

Tour of Flanders Preview

The Pro cycling season has been well under way for a few months now, but this week marks the first truly big spring classic with the Tour of Flanders in Belgium.

While not to take away from any of the other big monuments of cycling such as Milan-San Remo, Paris-Nice and Criterium International that have already been completed, the Tour of Flanders is special and unique as a one-day race with it's climbs, cobble-stones and typical bad weather.  If you win ONLY this race, you will have had a successful career.

My Cycling Comeback 2.0

After finishing the Bar I realized that I needed to fill some time that was once used for studying.  I had spent the past 4 years getting through law school while working full-time and having 2 kids to worry about as well.  Then the months of May-July were spent studying from 8am to midnight prepping for the Bar exam.  Since I had surgery to repair my Achilles tendon in Feb, it was high time to get some fitness and start rehabing not only my ankle but my entire body.  So about a month ago I got on the mountain bike and did some rides with my sister and her husband only to get throttled by them both.  I then began riding my road bike again daily and soon found a little fitness and just a sparse amount of lingering power.

I can't just ride my bike for fun and I really never have.  Not since I was first on the bike and raced have I been able to simply take a ride and not start thinking about racing, training, diet and yeah...Winning!  The logical thing to have done when I heard that there was a 3 stage Omnium bike race in Folsom this weekend would have been to go as a spectator, but instead I signed up for all 3 stages.  The weekend started with an early morning Criterium followed by a Time Trial later that day and then the final day Circuit race on Sunday.  I had decided that it was time to enter a weekend of suffering and to test of my mind and spirit.

Without going into too many details, I found my instincts taking over as soon as the first race began and the realization that I would be able to finish with the group.  My month long training program after years off of the bike (and surgery remember) wasn't near enough to challenge for the win, but I did manage a 14th in the Crit, a 15th for the TT and finally the last day blasted out a 7th in the field sprint from a field of about 50.  These efforts gave me a 7th overall and a pat on the back from my son.  Next year I'll be racing again, but my goal is to help some local riders win and to teach them a few things about riding and racing and how to put the competition into the curb (maybe not that last thing).


Perhaps the biggest and most glaring vacancy in my "tool-box" the whole weekend was my ancient bike and technology in comparison to the new and exciting stuff cyclists are riding now. 
 
Being 40 doesn't have to mean that I'm not able to compete (even on my relic of a machine).  In fact this weekend showed me that with some fitness and training these young punks might have to watch out.